AGP Executive Report

US Labor Market: The U.S. economy shed 23,000 jobs in July, missing expectations, with unemployment slipping to 4.1% as fewer people looked for work—while wages rose only 3.2% year over year, keeping pressure on household budgets. Canada-U.S. Trade: Canada and the U.S. are reportedly discussing a deal to swap concessions—on autos, dairy quota interpretation, and alcohol access—for the U.S. dropping threats of new tariffs starting Aug. 19; Prime Minister Carney called the talks “unpleasant” after Trump’s criticism. Philippines Growth: The Philippines’ Q2 growth slowed to 2.3% as Middle East war fallout hit inflation, fuel prices, jobs, and remittances; Malacañang says the slowdown is temporary and expects pickup in the second half. Energy Access in Nigeria: Nigeria’s power ministry will measure electrification by communities and people connected, not megawatts, as it pushes rural electrification through the Rural Electrification Agency. Government Finance Markets: Tanzania launched its first sovereign yield curve to improve transparency in government securities pricing and attract investors. Trade & Policy in BRICS: India wrapped up BRICS trade talks in Jaipur, focusing on WTO-centered reform, trade finance access for MSMEs, and resilient supply chains.

Philippines Growth Watch: The Marcos administration said the Philippines’ Q2 2026 slowdown to 2.3% is “temporary,” blaming Middle East-driven inflation, fuel costs, jobs and remittances, and pointing to faster budget releases and infrastructure spending to lift momentum in H2. Public Health & Human Capital: Indonesia’s Health Ministry asked the Transmigration Ministry’s 2026 Patriot Expedition Team to map health issues and basic services in transmigration areas, linking healthier communities to longer, more productive lives. Credit & Fiscal Credibility: Romania’s interim prime minister said rating agencies will weigh deficit and debt discipline, expressing optimism the country’s outlook will be maintained. Trade & Tariffs: Chinese experts condemned the US move to impose price floors and a 15% tariff on polysilicon products as protectionism aimed at slowing China’s industrial and chip supply chain growth. Regional Trade Integration: The East African Community set a goal to raise intra-regional trade to 50% by 2030, citing non-tariff barriers, inconsistent customs implementation and high transport costs. Illicit Medicines Crackdown: South Africa’s pharma manufacturers urged urgent action against illegal medicine trade, warning it now involves healthcare practitioners. Energy Diplomacy: Azerbaijan and Ukraine discussed gas supply, using Ukraine storage, and restoring trade to pre-war levels.

Trade Tensions: Canada’s PM Mark Carney called U.S. talks “nasty” after Trump’s tariff threats, saying the fight is about protecting Canadian jobs and businesses as 50% tariffs loom. Monetary Policy: Malawi’s central bank held its policy rate at 24% to keep inflation falling while supporting recovery, citing easing food prices but sticky non-food costs. Climate & Supply Chains: Germany’s Rhine low-water levels are squeezing river freight and raising costs, pushing officials to seek faster fixes to keep the industrial waterway moving. AI & Development: The World Bank says AI could boost productivity for 16.2% of workers in developing economies, but only if countries close gaps in power, internet, and skills. Industrial Cooperation: BRICS industry ministers adopted a Jaipur joint declaration to strengthen resilient, innovation-led industrial ties under PartNIR. Immigration & Labor: U.S. lawmakers urged DHS to extend Temporary Protected Status for Ukrainians as it nears expiration, warning of economic and workforce impacts. Air Travel Pricing: American Airlines will cap some complimentary upgrades at premium economy on select long-haul routes, tightening access to business class. Local Finance & Housing: Ghana’s gold-reserve push lifted reserves to $11.9B but came with major central bank losses, while NYC’s mobility summit focused on housing pathways to homeownership.

Public Procurement Discipline: Saudi Arabia approved a new Government Tenders and Procurement Law, warning firms not to start work before contract awards to curb disputes and improve transparency. Trade & Tech Retaliation: China rolled out tighter drone export controls and counter-sanctions on seven US firms, escalating a tit-for-tat trade fight. Digital Payments Expansion: Indonesia delayed income-tax collection by e-commerce platforms to Nov 1, refunding already-collected amounts, while Guangdong proposed expanding cross-border digital yuan pilots in its free trade zone plan. Monetary Policy Watch: Economists pushed back on expectations for an RBI rate hike as inflation pressures look contained, with the central bank expected to stay steady longer. Energy Security Reframed: India’s energy security push now hinges on manufacturing resilience and tech supply chains, not just resource access. Governance & Trust: Nepal’s Auditor General flagged inconsistent understanding of economic laws and called for updating rules for AI-era auditing, as private-sector leaders urged more predictable, business-friendly oversight. Labor & Social Safety Nets: Dutch unions joined actions targeting proposed social security cuts, setting strikes for early September.

Tax Reform Push: Romania’s PM Vasile Tofan unveiled a fiscal overhaul aimed at cutting labor taxes and boosting levies on banks, tobacco, alcohol and gambling, framing it as a tax-burden reshuffle to curb the shadow economy. Trade Corridors & Investment: Pakistan and Iran discussed expanding investment, barter trade and joint ventures, including a Karachi–Chabahar corridor, with sector talks spanning rice, petrochemicals and steel. Energy & Shipping Costs: U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright signaled another likely extension of the Jones Act waiver as fuel prices stay elevated, a move aimed at easing transport costs ahead of midterms. Monetary Policy Watch: India’s RBI held the repo rate at 5.25% in a neutral stance, citing uncertainty from West Asia, inflation risks and global trade volatility while projecting 6.7% growth for FY27. Digital Government Services: Saudi Arabia’s Tawakkalna App added 40 new services in July via partnerships with dozens of government entities, expanding one-stop access to public services. Local Economic Support: South Africa’s Public Works Minister Dean Macpherson secured zero-cost access for local fishermen and SMMEs to Elands Bay slipway and harbour facilities. Corporate Tax Scrutiny: A UK report says Palantir paid just £2.1m in corporation tax in 2024 despite large government contracts, pointing to transfer-pricing profit shifting.

Central Banking & Markets: India’s RBI kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% for a third straight meeting, while raising FY27 GDP growth to 6.7% and flagging West Asia risks—markets reacted with Sensex higher and Nifty flat. Monetary Reform & FX: Nigeria’s CBN pointed to easing inflation, a tighter FX spread (below 2% vs bureau de change), and rising reserves as signs reforms are working. Trade & Policy Coordination: Canada’s business leaders told KPMG they’re optimistic about Ottawa’s agenda, but execution matters most as U.S. tariff threats loom. Digital Economy & Regulation: Nigeria moved to tax crypto transactions with new virtual-asset guidelines, including possible stamp duty collection tied to digital assets. Food & Social Protection: Himachal Pradesh unveiled health insurance up to ₹10 lakh for poor families; Zambia launched food security support for 1,000 Chilanga households. Growth Watch: Indonesia’s Q2 growth slowed to 5.3% but beat forecasts on household and government spending. Energy, Agriculture & Risk: WTO will host “World Trade and Tech Day” in Geneva on AI’s role in trade; Nepal issued a new National Agriculture Policy to modernize and boost self-reliance. Local Governance: South Africa’s business lobby warned municipal dysfunction is now a national economic risk ahead of elections.

IMF Syria Recovery: The IMF agreed a technical assistance programme for Syria after a July mission, projecting double-digit growth in 2026 but warning poverty remains widespread and recovery is uneven. Budget Watch: Finland’s finance ministry unveiled a €92.2b 2027 budget proposal with a €12.9b deficit and a planned spending cut cap of €4.8b. Trade Tensions—Canada-US: Canada’s trade surplus widened in June as exports rose and imports fell, while Canada-U.S. talks resume in Washington ahead of tariff deadlines. E20 Fuel Backlash (India): India’s Punjab Assembly passed a resolution opposing the Centre’s E20 petrol rollout, citing vehicle compatibility, consumer protection, and pricing concerns; protests also continued in Delhi. Syria Growth Outlook: The IMF links Syria’s rebound to improved rainfall, agriculture recovery, expanding hydrocarbon output, electricity, trade and services—alongside refugee returns. Sustainable Energy & Water (Kenya): Kenya began public participation on a Lake Baringo irrigation plan aimed at creating ~100,000 jobs and generating nearly Sh40b in economic value. Food & Logistics (South Africa): SA freight and meat-trade groups signed a cooperation deal to tackle port, border, and veterinary logistics bottlenecks. Public Finance Oversight (South Africa): A new push for tighter budget monitoring will require six-monthly progress reporting on major projects. Business & Growth (China): China’s services trade rose 8.3% in H1 2026, led by knowledge-intensive exports.

Global Growth Outlook: Mapfre Economics projects world growth at 3.0% in 2026 and 3.1% in 2027, with inflation easing but risks tied to fiscal stress and uneven recovery. Trade & Tariffs: A coalition of 25 US states challenges Trump’s Section 301 tariffs on 60 countries, including India, arguing weak legal footing and higher costs for Americans. South Asia Trade Deals: Bangladesh and South Korea sign a CEPA, granting preferential access for most goods; Pakistan and Iran reaffirm a $10bn trade target and push an early FTA, with Karachi and Gwadar ports in focus. Energy & Transport Policy: Philippines fuel subsidy talks consider a P20-per-liter support for PUV drivers; Pakistan says it has no generation shortage but needs storage and grid flexibility for solar surpluses. AI, Aviation & Copyright: Malaysia invites feedback on a Low Altitude Economy framework and clarifies that AI training using copyrighted material requires licensing/royalties. Local Economy & Jobs: India’s Telangana faces backlash after a CM remark calling some engineering graduates a “criminal waste,” while World Bank cuts the Philippines growth forecast to 3.7% for 2026.

Trade Deal Momentum: Indonesia and Thailand adopted a 2026–2030 strategic roadmap and set a goal of $20bn in bilateral trade by 2030, backed by a new Joint Trade Commission to tackle barriers and boost investment. Trade Expansion: India’s commerce minister urged doubling India–Uzbekistan trade to about $3bn over three years, pointing to mining, cotton, pharma, textiles, and advanced manufacturing, with a possible free trade agreement on the table. Tariffs in the Courts: Arizona joined a multi-state lawsuit challenging the federal government’s tariff authority, arguing import taxes are raising costs for households and small businesses. FX and Inflation Watch: The U.S. and Japan coordinated yen support, reviving concerns about carry-trade spillovers for markets including crypto. Energy Policy: Ghana rolled out a GH¢2/litre temporary diesel relief, while regulators in Nepal advanced new animal welfare and transport policy updates. Competition & Consumer Protection: ECOWAS warned that price-fixing and anti-competitive practices are undermining regional integration and driving up prices.

Monetary Policy Watch (US): Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s new task forces are reigniting debate over how U.S. monetary policy should be guided, with economists warning that unclear signals could raise market volatility and growth risk. Central Banking (China): China’s central bank pledged a moderately loose stance for H2, aiming to keep liquidity ample and support tech and private-enterprise financing. Trade & Investment (Uzbekistan): Uzbekistan invited Indian firms into mining and rare earths, targeting $2bn bilateral trade next year and pitching gold, copper, uranium and critical minerals. Energy Transition & Markets: Argus launched SAF emissions reduction indexes to help airlines compare SAF economics against carbon market costs. Regional Business & Policy (Philippines): Manila’s Metro Manila Business Conference 2026 (Aug 3–4) will focus on energy, trade and security for resilient ASEAN growth. Quality & Border Trade (Africa): Tanzania rolled out the Africa Quality Mark to cut inspection delays and non-tariff barriers under AfCFTA. Housing Delivery (Spain): Canary Islands admitted it awarded no new public social housing contracts in 2026 so far, despite a large waiting list. Regulation & Compliance (Nigeria): Nigeria’s federal treasury circular tightens contract approvals, requiring budgetary backing before ministries can sign or commit funds. Aviation & Transport (Turkey): Istanbul Airport set a new daily passenger record, reinforcing its role as a global transfer hub.

Food Security Overhaul: The Philippines’ PIDS warns food programs are misweighted toward rice production and hurt by weak budget execution, leaving malnutrition and high prices persistent. Monetary Policy Cuts: Bangladesh Bank cut the repo rate 50 bps to 9.50% to spur private credit and recovery, while China’s central bank pledged moderately loose policy in H2. Inflation Watch: Philippines inflation forecasts remain pressured by El Niño, geopolitics, and a weaker peso; RBI is expected to hold rates as June inflation in India breached its 4% target. Trade & Borders: India-China border trade via Nathula and Shipki-La resumes after years, and Somalia pushes customs reforms to make EAC/AfCFTA membership pay off. Energy & Industry: Ghana’s TOR gets capacity expansion plans toward 100,000 bpd; Ukraine prepares support for agricultural exporters as attacks disrupt ports. Digital & Work Reform: Malaysia rolls out a Hybrid Workday policy to modernise public services. Policy Debate: Nigeria’s Presidency rejects Atiku’s economic critique as outdated, while Nigeria launches a National Laureate Programme to boost research and the knowledge economy.

Monetary Policy Watch: China’s central bank pledged timely adjustments to policy tools, kept liquidity ample, and backed yuan “panda bond” issuance as growth slows to 4.3% in Q2. Markets & Central Banking: India’s Dalal Street heads into a key week with RBI’s Aug 3-5 MPC decision, fresh Q1 earnings, crude moves, and FII flows after a strong rebound. Energy & Climate Shock: Hungary shut down its Paks nuclear plant as record-low Danube levels from drought and heatwaves cut cooling water, underscoring how climate stress can hit power supply. Trade & Infrastructure: China-funded highway upgrades in Cambodia are easing travel and boosting local trade, while Bangladesh and Myanmar discussed expanding trade, connectivity, LNG imports, and restarting border commerce. Policy Uncertainty: Nepal’s central bank study links economic policy uncertainty to weaker stocks, imports, credit, and GDP. Digital Work & Services: Malaysia’s Hybrid Workday rollout aims to modernize public services and reduce commuting costs without hurting delivery. Governance Reform Debate: Pakistan’s defense minister backs governance reform but says it should go through constitutional forums, not public speeches.

Germany Politics & Economy: A new INSA poll finds 65% of Germans expect little from the coalition after Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s cabinet reshuffle, with urgent public pressure on pensions, the economy, health, and internal security. Ethiopia–Tigray Conflict: Fighting erupted in western Tigray, with Ethiopia and the TPLF trading blame over alleged failures to implement the 2022 peace deal—raising risks for regional stability and trade. Egypt Growth Outlook: The Arab Monetary Fund forecasts Egypt’s economy will grow 4.5% in 2026 (4.8% in 2027), citing resilient demand, stronger investment inflows, and improving macro stability. Malaysia Ageing Policy: Malaysia’s Economy Ministry is designing a pilot project to tackle ageing pressures, including fiscal assessments and a “care economy,” aiming to roll it out next year. US Trade Enforcement: The US Trade Fraud Task Force has topped $1 billion in recoveries and charged losses in under a year, signaling tougher customs and supply-chain enforcement. Middle East Shipping Shock: Iran defends its Hormuz blockade and tanker strikes as self-defence, while the UN warns the conflict is disrupting global trade, energy markets, and food security. SNAP Cuts Impact: Food-aid cuts under a 2025 law are hitting Black Americans hardest, with millions already losing SNAP and advocates warning the worst is still ahead. Central Bank Guidance Debate: QNB weighs how Fed leadership under Kevin Warsh could shift the balance between forward guidance and policy flexibility.

Energy Security: Malaysia says petrol and diesel supply at Petronas stations should stay stable until September, with crisis monitoring focused on pricing and smuggling prevention. Central Banking Watch: India’s RBI is widely expected to hold the repo rate at 5.25% in its next MPC meeting, with markets looking for guidance on inflation, liquidity, and oil-driven risks. Trade & Investment: India and Rwanda launched an India–Rwanda Joint Trade Committee to expand trade, diversify exports, and tackle logistics bottlenecks. Regional Trade Deals: Maldives–Türkiye preferential trade agreements entered into force, cutting tariffs across hundreds of product lines and aiming to boost fisheries exports. AI & Jobs: A new push argues AI is reshaping labor demand, with growing opportunities for skilled trades tied to AI infrastructure. Power Reform: Nigeria’s power minister says fixing electricity requires reforms across the full value chain—generation, transmission, distribution, and payment—not just output. Mining Politics: Ghana’s opposition caucus challenges the Damang Mine deal, demanding a renegotiated state equity stake of at least 30%. Housing Pressure: Australia’s housing crisis debate intensifies as economists blame “word no” local politics for blocking supply.

Water & Federal Intervention: The U.S. federal government has stepped in with a 10-year Colorado River operating plan after basin states failed to agree, setting up new, periodic guidelines and potential supply cuts for key Southwest states. Fiscal Discipline: UK Chancellor John Healey told ministers to prepare spending cuts ahead of his Oct. 28 budget, as Burnham’s new pledges add pressure. Macroeconomic Recovery Watch: The IMF said Egypt’s economy is still recovering despite Middle East conflict, citing solid growth and disinflation—while warning core pressures remain. Energy Policy: Nigeria will phase out electricity subsidies from 2027, aiming to tackle NESI debt and liquidity while promising no supply deterioration. Trade & Regional Deals: The Philippines and Cambodia are pushing to expand agri-trade and investment links; Pakistan also seeks to lift U.S. trade to $20bn over five years. Digital Finance & Jobs: Maldives-India cross-border payments get a boost via linking Favara to India’s UPI, while Nigeria launched AI capacity-building for 11,700 federal unity college teachers. U.S. Growth Snapshot: U.S. GDP grew at a sluggish 1.5% in Q2 as imports weighed, though consumer spending stayed resilient.

US Macro: The US economy grew at a sluggish 1.5% in 2Q, with consumer spending holding up while imports weighed on growth and inflation stayed above the Fed’s 2% goal. Middle East Risk: Fresh US-Iran missile strikes ended a brief respite, keeping fuel-price and wider spillover fears on the table. UK Tech Governance: Britain’s AI and digital policy reshuffle after Burnham’s abolition of DSIT puts AI policy in the Prime Minister’s office and moves digital services/cyber under a renamed culture ministry. China AI Push: China’s NDRC says AI is driving fast growth and flags more pilot bases, data sharing, and a long-awaited AI law balancing development and security. China Currency: The offshore yuan hit a 3-year high as Beijing signalled incremental policy support and capital-market resilience. Asia Trade: The Philippines reported a surge in exports—especially semiconductors—while still running a trade deficit; it’s also pushing new FTAs (EU, Canada, updated Japan deal). Global Policy/Trade: Canada’s premiers face pressure to give Ottawa room to negotiate hard with the US as tariff threats loom. South Africa Blue Economy: South Africa links maritime security and port upgrades to Blue Economy jobs, trade resilience, and marine protection. India Courts/Business: An Allahabad High Court ruling says government offices can’t delay business approvals indefinitely, calling unexplained inaction “malice in law.” Malaysia MSMEs: Malaysia says MSMEs grew faster than the overall economy in 2025 and is pushing firms to scale up and export.