AGP Executive Report

UK Political Transition: Keir Starmer resigned as prime minister and Labour leader, setting up a fast-moving leadership handover likely to elevate Andy Burnham within weeks, with economic frustration and policy uncertainty hanging over the transition. Canada Energy & Food Security: Canada launched a National Food Security Strategy backed by $3B over 10 years to boost competition and lower prices, while Energy Minister Tim Hodgson unveiled a nuclear push aiming for up to 10 new reactors, more uranium exports, and grid expansion. Trade & Industrial Deals: Canada and Croatia pledged deeper ties, including a drone manufacturing agreement to expand defence-linked production; Tata Electronics reported a cyber incident tied to leaked Apple and Tesla component designs. Inflation Watch: Fed policy focus remains on inflation expectations, with markets tracking how quickly price pressures could re-ignite. EU Fisheries Pressure: NGOs urged the EU not to reopen the Common Fisheries Policy, warning that big reforms could weaken sustainability safeguards. Middle East Infrastructure: Iraq named an acting ports chief for a three-month term tied to the Grand Al-Faw Port project. Africa Policy & Growth: Curaçao’s central bank flagged the informal economy as a drag on taxes and productivity; Zambia’s farmers’ show renewed calls to raise FISP support.

US-India Trade Talks: USTR Jamieson Greer is set to visit New Delhi for multiple rounds with Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal as both sides push to advance a bilateral trade agreement ahead of a looming US tariff deadline. US-Iran Diplomacy & Energy: Iran’s foreign minister says US talks in Switzerland, with Pakistan and Qatar mediators, have made progress toward easing pressure on Iran’s economy and ending Lebanon fighting, while the US energy secretary signals Iran could resume oil sales—raising stakes for global prices and Strait of Hormuz risk. Geopolitics Meets Supply Chains: A new focus on maritime chokepoints highlights how disruptions at narrow routes can ripple through energy, manufacturing, and consumer costs worldwide. China-US Trade Retaliation: China imposed export controls on 56 US firms and barred 46 from government procurement in response to US military-linked entity listings, keeping tech and defense tensions simmering. Commodity Policy Watch: Traders await a potential Trump decision on refined copper tariffs, which could shift prices and global copper trade flows. Industrial Revival: Nepal moves to revive the long-closed Hetauda Textile Industry with renewed inspections and plans to restart the state factory. Regional Growth Outlook: Ghana’s economy is projected to grow 5.9–6.1% in 2026, supported by infrastructure and gold mining expansion.

Trade & Tariffs: The US has opened a trade probe into Germany over alleged “unfair” drug pricing, raising the risk of new tariffs as Berlin tries to rein in medicine costs. Geopolitics & Energy: Germany’s defence minister blamed Donald Trump for the Strait of Hormuz disruptions, warning Europe’s energy supply and recovery depend on reopening safe passage. Middle East Talks: US-Iran negotiations in Switzerland are paired with public threats, with both sides warning each other as Lebanon tensions flare. Monetary Policy: India’s RBI is widely expected to hold the repo rate at 5.25%, with easing global risks shifting focus back to monsoon, food inflation and crude prices. Investment Facilitation: Bangladesh is pushing a centralized online one-stop investment service to speed licensing and approvals, including provisional licences for early operations. Digital Economy: Nigeria’s fintech push is centered on expanding digital payments to drive growth and inclusion, while the IMF warns electricity subsidies and below-cost tariffs are draining Nigeria’s finances. Industrial Policy: India’s space sector is projected to grow to $40–45bn in a decade as private participation expands. Business Climate Reform: Bangladesh’s finance minister says a deregulation taskforce will roll out ministry dashboards to track project delivery and separate tax policy from collection. Regional Growth: Ethiopia’s Prosperity Party won another big parliamentary majority, backing claims of strong food security and fast growth.

UK Labour Leadership Shake-Up: Andy Burnham’s Makerfield by-election win boosts his bid to challenge Keir Starmer, with Burnham signaling he’d avoid “crude” DWP cuts while keeping the state pension triple lock. Fuel & Inflation Relief: Pakistan withdrew emergency fuel conservation and austerity steps after US-Iran détente, while India’s finance and trade officials push ahead on tariff hurdles for the US FTA. Farm Income Support: India’s PM-KISAN released its 23rd instalment—Rs 18,880 crore to nearly 9.44 crore farmers—keeping direct cash transfers central to rural stability. Trade Diversification Push: South Sudan’s trade forum targets reducing oil-only exports, and Kazakhstan-Afghanistan talks aim to lift bilateral trade toward $3 billion. Geopolitics Meets Markets: Iran accelerates petroleum exports after partial sanctions relief tied to a US-Iran ceasefire MOU, even as experts warn of deeper domestic strain. Energy Transition Policy: Scottish Renewables urges clearer tidal-stream policy to help projects like MeyGen scale. Local Governance & Migration: South Africa denies a June 30 migrant exit deadline and highlights voter-registration gaps ahead of local elections. Economic Outlook Watch: France’s central bank warns heatwaves could weigh on growth, while India’s parliament panel adds a review of evolving economic conditions amid global uncertainty.

AI & Trade Diplomacy: Sharjah sent a high-level mission to China’s Guangdong to deepen ties in AI, digital infrastructure, advanced manufacturing, smart mobility and green energy, as non-oil trade hit $111.5B in 2025. Energy & Regional Deals: Indonesia and Kuwait reaffirmed energy-security cooperation and agreed to accelerate GCC–Indonesia free-trade talks, targeting completion by end-2026. Migration Rights: UN rights chief Volker Turk urged the EU to ensure its new migration rules don’t violate refugee and human rights law, warning against “outsourcing” obligations via return hubs. India–US Trade: India’s commerce minister Piyush Goyal said the US trade deal can’t be implemented until India secures a “competitive advantage” via lower duties. Ghana 24-Hour Economy: A policy critique argues Ghana’s logistics system goes “blind” after 6pm, leaving SMEs without real-time visibility needed for a true round-the-clock economy. AfCFTA Industrial Push: Afreximbank-backed training in Accra aims to help African officials draft automotive policy frameworks aligned with AfCFTA rules of origin. Cuba Reform Plan: Cuba’s party leadership approved a 23-axis reform program to boost production, attract investment and protect vulnerable groups amid US sanctions.

UK Politics & Leadership: Andy Burnham’s byelection win clears his path to challenge Keir Starmer, but he’s still not launched a formal leadership bid, keeping Labour’s internal fight in limbo. Middle East Trade & Energy: A Lebanon ceasefire is reviving US-Iran talks, with envoys heading to Switzerland as negotiators try to turn an interim pact into a lasting deal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and steady oil flows. Pakistan–Saudi Economic Package: PM Shehbaz and Saudi Crown Prince MBS agreed to finalize a comprehensive economic package, tying it to regional diplomacy after the US–Iran framework. Fiscal Decentralisation Watch: Pakistan’s Sindh budget drew criticism from PRAC for cutting development and underfunding Karachi and local governments, raising risks to growth and services. Cuba Market Reforms: Cuba’s National Assembly approved sweeping reforms to liberalize business and decentralize finance, but skepticism remains as the crisis deepens. EU Industrial Policy: China’s chamber warned the EU’s Industrial Accelerator Act could backfire via procurement and investment rules, urging clearer, open-market safeguards. Trade Logistics: A TradeMark Africa analysis flags the Durban–Kasumbalesa corridor as a make-or-break route for intra-African trade under AfCFTA. Tourism & Regulation: Karnataka plans a coastal tourism cabinet push to cut CRZ and forest-clearance bottlenecks, aiming to unlock jobs and investment.

Trade & Industrial Policy: Uganda’s trade ministry says the next budget will prioritize market access and help manufacturers meet entry requirements before production starts. Competition & Data: Malaysia’s competition watchdog MyCC and statistics agency DOSM signed an MoU to share data and build capacity for stronger competition enforcement. Child Care Funding: Canada’s Jobs and Families minister announced new funding to keep early learning and child care affordable nationwide. Infrastructure Planning: Bangladesh’s Teesta master plan is expected to win ECNEC approval next meeting, with domestic financing and technical support to protect the basin. Illicit Trade Crackdown: Philippines officials blamed endemic corruption for a P141bn revenue loss from illegal tobacco trade, urging enforcement against operators. Energy Diplomacy: President Marcos said the Philippines has no firm energy deal with Russia yet, but Russia is “very open” to expanding petroleum product supplies. Local Economic Governance: Rio Rancho city council heard updates from the Sandoval Economic Alliance and the regional chamber as leaders faced questions over economic-development roles. Digital Work Rules: Kenya’s digital platform economy is outpacing labor law, with experts warning algorithms are becoming the “boss” without clear protections.

Central Banking Watch (Philippines): The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas raised its benchmark rate by 25 bps to 4.75%, citing sticky inflation pressures from elevated oil and fertilizer costs, and pushed its 2026 inflation forecast up to 6.4%. UK Public Finances: UK borrowing jumped in May, with debt interest costs hitting a record £11.7bn, pushing public sector net borrowing to £23.3bn and raising concerns about fiscal headroom. Trade Diplomacy (India–US): India’s foreign secretary said the interim trade agreement is in the final stages, with the US trade representative set to visit next week as rupee sentiment improves on oil easing. EU–China Trade Defences: EU leaders backed stronger trade tools to counter China’s export surge and critical-material leverage, while still calling for “constructive dialogue.” Cuba Economic Overhaul: Cuba’s National Assembly approved sweeping reforms to expand private enterprise and attract investment as the island battles a deepening crisis. Local Governance (UK): Scotland’s rural communities warned of a “quiet crisis” as costs like fuel and travel strain household budgets.

US-India Trade Talks: PM Narendra Modi told reporters after meeting Donald Trump at the G7 that negotiations show “significant progress” toward an interim bilateral trade deal, with USTR Jamieson Greer set to visit next week and both sides aiming to lift trade to $500bn by 2030. Global Growth Pressure: A G-7 discussion warned of a rare squeeze: the US is absorbing global savings while Europe lags on productivity and China’s output and subsidies distort trade, raising fears of a deeper world slowdown. Markets Watch: Wall Street strategist Jim Paulsen flagged a US growth shift—private-sector growth lagging public spending—as a pattern that has historically preceded stock weakness. Trade Facilitation: Switzerland’s SECO and the World Customs Organization extended the Global Trade Facilitation Programme Phase II for 12 months to Dec 2028, backing customs reforms and new country rollouts. Cuba Reforms: Cuba’s Communist Party approved an emergency package with free-market measures to expand private enterprise and attract investment as US pressure deepens. Public Integrity & Governance: The Netherlands-style “integrity baseline scan” in the Ministry of Economic Development found integrity is known in policy but rarely discussed in evaluations, confidential advisors are little used, and follow-up on reports is weak.

UAE Finance: The UAE launches a retail sovereign retail T-sukuk programme, letting residents invest in government-backed sukuk from Dh1,000, aiming to broaden access to lower-risk savings. G7 Trade & Security: G7 leaders push to diversify critical minerals away from China, setting a 2030 cap on any single country’s share of rare earth and magnet imports below 60%, while Japan stresses energy security and stockpiling. India-UK Trade: The India-UK free trade deal is set to take effect July 15 after last-minute steel and sector fixes, with officials projecting a sizable GDP boost. India-US Trade: Modi and Trump direct officials to pursue an interim, “commercially meaningful” trade agreement soon, with USTR Jamieson Greer visiting next week. Monetary/Inflation Watch: Citi cuts its India rate-hike forecast after a US-Iran interim accord eases oil-price pressure; markets also track the Fed and BoE decisions. Pakistan Trade Costs: Pakistan suspends a planned 5% Karachi Port Trust tariff hike, citing relief for importers and exporters. Budget Execution Risk: Nepal’s 2026/27 budget trims capital spending share, raising concerns about weak development delivery. Climate Policy Delay: Malaysia delays its carbon tax rollout to avoid extra burden amid Middle East uncertainty. Digital Economy Debate: A US poll finds voters want local governments cautious on new data centers due to strain on utilities and infrastructure. Regional Cooperation: Angola urges SADC cooperation to tackle illegal fishing via shared maritime monitoring. AI & Growth Limits: Commentary warns AI can’t solve jobs and demand gaps without broader economic support.

Trade & Investment: India and the UK confirmed their Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement will kick in on July 15, alongside the Double Contribution Convention, aiming to double two-way commerce to $100bn by 2030 and resolving a steel safeguard dispute. Monetary Policy: The US Fed, under chair Kevin Warsh, held rates steady and lifted its inflation outlook, while signaling most officials expect at least one hike by year-end. Public Finance: Kenya’s Treasury defended growth and debt management before the Senate, while Ukraine approved its 2027-2029 Budget Declaration with faster wage growth and a glide path to lower inflation. Energy & Cost of Living: UK ministers launched a £219m fund to scale advanced sustainable aviation fuel, but airlines warned supply may fall short of mandates. Trade Zones & Logistics: Bangladesh cleared the way for its first free trade zones near Cox’s Bazar and Chattogram to cut export lead times and attract suppliers. Governance & Business Climate: A report alleges corporate capture risks inside the US Commerce Department, and Nepal’s labour minister said the foreign employment law needs major overhaul to ensure dignified work. Regional Resilience: Laos and Australia discussed strengthening economic resilience amid shifting trade and geopolitical shocks.

Global Markets & Rates: Japan reported a $2.34bn trade deficit in May as oil imports fell sharply but higher shipping costs and the Middle East shock kept pressure on the balance of payments, while the Bank of Japan lifted its policy rate to a 31-year high. US–Iran & Energy Pass-Through: G7 leaders meet amid lingering inflation risks even after a US-Iran ceasefire, with analysts warning fuel-price relief won’t be instant. Trade Policy: The European Parliament ratified the EU–US trade deal, lowering tariffs through 2029 with a safeguard to suspend cuts if the US breaches terms. AI & Commerce Regulation: The US Commerce Department ordered Anthropic to restrict access to certain AI models for foreign nationals, citing national security and export-control concerns. Public Finance & Debt: The Philippines launched a benchmark triple-tranche dollar bond sale (5.5, 10, and 25 years) aiming for at least $1.5bn total. Tax & Growth Politics: Korea signaled a review of income tax cuts for young workers at SMEs, potentially expanding benefits beyond the Seoul area. Labor & Transition Policy: The ILO launched a Just Transition Policy Gateway to help policymakers link jobs, skills, social protection, enterprise support, and climate goals. Digital Regulation: Nepal moved OTT platforms into a mandatory licensing and registration framework to tighten content oversight and competition rules.

Monetary Policy: The Bank of Japan lifted its policy rate to a 31-year high of 1.0%, citing inflation risks from higher crude prices and a weak yen, while stressing it will keep normalizing toward its 2% target. Growth Watch: Rwanda reported Q1 2026 GDP growth of 10% year-on-year, led by industry (up 13%) and services, signaling ongoing structural shift toward higher-value activity. Food & Trade Compliance: The U.S. FDA pushed back its Food Traceability Rule deadline to July 20, 2028, easing pressure on food firms while keeping the supply-chain logging requirements in place. Trade Diplomacy: Canada’s LeBlanc told U.S. Trade Rep Jamieson Greer talks on a continental pact are a two-way process, with both sides reviewing progress on irritants ahead of major negotiations. Energy Policy: West Virginia signed a 2026 energy plan aiming to triple generation capacity to 50 GW by 2050, with grid and cyber protections built in. Capital Markets & Industry: Ghana’s Kasapreko IPO on the GSE was oversubscribed, highlighting investor appetite for indigenous manufacturers and funding expansion. Regional Development: Bangladesh approved a Chinese Economic & Industrial Zone in Anwara, targeting export jobs and foreign investment in textiles and pharma.

Monetary Policy: Japan’s central bank lifted its key rate to a 31-year high of 1.0% as it weighs inflation risks from higher crude prices and a weaker yen. Pakistan Fiscal Outlook: Pakistan warned that oil-price swings, slower growth, and tax shortfalls could widen the 2026-27 deficit, with the finance ministry flagging how not passing fuel-price increases could raise subsidy burdens. Pakistan Rates: The State Bank of Pakistan kept its policy rate at 11.5%, citing double-digit inflation and uncertainty tied to the Middle East, even as oil prices eased. Trade Uncertainty: A Pakistan study says domestic policy uncertainty is costing exporters far more than external tariff wars, pointing to a sharp jump after the 2024 Finance Act. Energy & Industry: India’s wind sector got a boost as the government ordered a 30-day assessment of ageing turbines for repowering, lifting shares of Inox Wind and Suzlon. Digital Government: Saudi Arabia reported SR31.9bn in 2025 spending on communications and IT for digital government services, citing efficiency gains. Regional Planning: Hong Kong launched public consultation on its first five-year economic plan, aiming to sharpen growth and employment and align rules across the Greater Bay Area. Land Reform: India’s land resources ministry met the World Bank to explore cooperation on land records, watershed work, and digital public service delivery. Infrastructure Discipline: Ireland’s budget talks signaled moderation in government spending, with efficiency and value-for-money emphasized ahead of union pay negotiations. Trade Architecture: Civil society urged ASEAN-Australia-New Zealand governments to review and potentially remove ISDS rules from the updated trade deal.

US-Iran Economic Pivot: A US-Iran framework deal to end fighting and reopen the Strait of Hormuz is already easing the cost-of-living mood, with gas prices slipping below $4 a gallon as markets look for lower oil and inflation pressure. Energy & Trade Policy: In parallel, the US Jones Act waiver debate is heating up as foreign-flagged vessels get temporary permission to move cargo between US ports, drawing pushback from maritime labor and industry. Tax & Governance: South Africa’s Finance Minister refused to disclose details of the SARS Phala Phala investigation, citing limits on sharing tax information—keeping political pressure on the government. Regional Economic Planning: Pakistan’s Punjab unveiled a five-year roadmap targeting growth, investment, and structural reforms, highlighting the province’s outsized role in GDP and crops. Social Rights Watch: Belgium’s human rights institute warned that reforms to unemployment, pensions, and reintegration of the long-term sick could erode social rights for hundreds of thousands. EU Trade Leverage: Armenia signaled no shift away from its Europe path despite Russian pressure, as EU support and market access remain central to its trade outlook. Political Risk in Nigeria: The ADC rejected a court-ordered deregistration threat, warning it could trigger a wider democratic crisis ahead of 2027 elections. Illicit Trade Crackdown: The Philippines is set to host an international tobacco summit focused on fighting illegal tobacco and protecting livelihoods and tax revenue.

Global Energy & Trade Risk: The US-Iran peace deal is being framed as a path to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with UN and UK leaders stressing “freedom of navigation” to ease months of economic strain, even as industry warns recovery could take time. UK Growth Delivery: Britain’s business lobby (BCC) urges a new “Growth Delivery Test,” arguing firms still have ambition but lack confidence that policy will change outcomes—after weak growth data and cost pressures. Sri Lanka Political-Economic Alarm: Opposition leader Ranil Wickremesinghe warns Sri Lanka is heading toward “total collapse,” linking economic deterioration to governance and social tensions. Malaysia Macro Watch: Malaysia’s economy is reported growing at 5.4% in Q1 with low inflation, while the Economy Ministry plans a parliamentary statement on the global energy crisis and supply-chain disruptions. India-Europe & Regional Deals: India and Slovakia highlight record trade and deeper economic cooperation; India and France push an innovation/AI and trade roadmap. Policy Design Debate: Australia’s tax overhaul faces scrutiny, with experts saying reforms are “not economy-changing” but could improve productivity via more neutral capital gains settings. Local Business Pressure: Lagos economists praise a N5bn MSME loan push, while South Africa’s businesses warn electricity tariff hikes could hit jobs and investment. Infrastructure & Energy Transition: India’s coal ministry promotes coal gasification as a growth engine; Bahrain spotlights steady real estate activity as an investment driver.