AGP Executive Report

Trade Talks Under Pressure: Canada and the U.S. are stepping up negotiations ahead of a fresh tariff threat, with Ontario and Ottawa urging progress on a renewed USMCA and warning that dairy supply management and provincial liquor rules remain sticking points. Housing & Infrastructure: Ontario and the federal government are jointly putting up to $1B to help municipalities build infrastructure for more homes, targeting places that don’t use development charges. Digital Economy & Telecom Resilience: Globe Telecom is pushing for a national policy to standardize underground conduit infrastructure to cut cable theft and service disruptions. Monetary Policy Watch: The Philippines’ central bank still has room to tighten further, with MUFG expecting additional rate hikes despite July disinflation. Regional Growth & Jobs: Pakistan launched its first National Youth Employment Policy, including quotas for women in the labour force and startup creation, aiming to cut youth NEET rates by 2030. Circular Economy: Qatar is removing thousands of abandoned end-of-life vehicles and highlighting how recycling could recover materials and support a more circular approach to waste. China-U.S. Trade Friction: China launched two reciprocal trade investigations into U.S. practices, citing U.S. Section 301 probes.

Trade & Diplomacy: South Korea’s President Lee abruptly dismissed trade minister Yeo Han-koo as the country faces unresolved U.S. tariff and investment issues, with the industry minister heading to Washington amid mounting questions. Policy Implementation: Jordan’s Jerash “Maidani” program found a gap between Cabinet-announced projects and on-the-ground delivery, with MPs citing 70–80% completion of 2025 commitments. Cost of Living & Social Spending: Malaysia is keeping 2027 Budget space for targeted cash support via SARA/Rahmah, with 2026 allocations reaching RM15bn and nearly nine million recipients. Diaspora Finance: Nepal is moving to let non-resident Nepalis invest in Nepal-based firms through foreign-currency IPOs, pending Cabinet approval. Digital & Business Regulation: India’s Finance Ministry plans “Project Insight 2.0” from Jan 27, 2028 to speed income-tax refunds and flag suspicious claims, as delays and late refunds have risen. Energy & Trade Routes: India is urged to treat Red Sea disruption as a persistent trade risk, strengthening shipping capacity, trade finance, naval protection, and alternative corridors. Public Health Rules: Kuwait issued new rules tightly restricting tobacco and nicotine sales and distribution, including bans in education and youth facilities.

Trade Policy Shock: South Korea sacked its chief trade negotiator as US tariff pressure and disputes over Coupang’s data breach intensify. Iran Economic Pressure: US officials and Trump-linked messaging escalated calls for “unprecedented” economic isolation of Iran, while Iran’s president blamed war damage and falling oil sales for worsening prices and shrinking state revenue. Macro Tailwinds vs Costs: US tariff refunds are boosting corporate profits and are projected to add about 0.2 points to GDP growth, even as inflation cools and retail sales fall. Regional Trade Friction: Rwanda’s alcohol ban on Kenyan and Ugandan products is sparking an EAC standards dispute over market access and whether harmonised rules can be overridden. Energy & Growth Plans: Nepal’s energy minister said electricity trade reforms and regulation should move in parallel, while Saint Lucia proposed zero-rating VAT on solar equipment to cut bills. Local Implementation Watch: Jordan’s “Maidani” program found big gaps between cabinet promises and on-the-ground delivery in Jerash. Cost-of-Living Measures: Victoria (Australia) backed a $50-a-week toll cap plan to cut costs for families and small businesses.

Social Protection & Cost of Living: Malaysia starts Phase 3 STR cash aid payments today for 5.3 million recipients, with RM1.2bn disbursed in stages; payouts range RM150–RM600, and total 2026 STR phases 1–3 reach RM3.6bn. Policy Credibility & Investment: Malaysia’s finance and regulatory institutions are being cited as key to investor confidence, with emphasis on policy stability and professional implementation across political cycles. Trade Compliance & Tariff Evasion Claims: Malaysia’s Port Klang Free Zone rejects a US report’s implication of tariff evasion, saying customs screening and origin certification are handled through national authorities. EU–US Trade Friction: The US presses the EU to ease supply-chain green rules tied to due diligence and reporting, while the EU says its regulatory autonomy is not up for negotiation. US–Canada Tariff Talks: Canada says it and the US remain far apart on a draft deal ahead of Aug. 19’s 50% tariff deadline, with talks continuing through the weekend. South Korea–US Pressure: South Korea sacks its chief trade negotiator as US tariff pressure grows and disputes over investment commitments and e-commerce fines loom. Energy Market Liberalization: Nepal moves to amend electricity law to allow private sector participation in electricity trading, aiming to untangle legal gaps. India Growth Narrative: SBI Research reiterates India’s resilience and fast growth, citing strong credit demand, deposit growth, and FCNR(B) inflows. Africa Exports Boost: China’s zero-tariff policy for 53 African countries is already lifting trade, with early gains highlighted for Nigeria’s industrial transition.

Iran Economic Pressure: U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says Washington will hit Iran “hard economically” next week with measures “never seen before,” alongside an indefinite Strait of Hormuz blockade, as talks stall. Trade Negotiations: Canada and the U.S. are still far from a tariff-reduction deal, with any agreement expected to keep some tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos and lumber while Canada presses for substantial cuts. EU-US Friction: The EU pushed back on renewed U.S. trade pressure, arguing its green and human-rights rules can’t be negotiated away even as Washington claims Brussels enables tariff evasion. Global Growth Outlook: The World Bank cut its 2026 growth forecast to 2.5% amid Middle East-driven energy and inflation shocks, while warning AI investment could soften the blow but also raise bubble risks. Regional Trade Boost: Nigeria-China trade jumped 35% to $18bn in H1 after China’s zero-tariff policy for African countries took effect May 1. State-Level Finance: Oklahoma reported FY2026 General Revenue Fund collections $612m above estimate, freeing up reserve-held funds as the state heads into the next legislative session. Innovation Spending: Pennsylvania’s 2026-27 budget sets aside $125m for “Innovate in PA 2.0,” aiming to expand venture capital and commercialization in robotics, life sciences and manufacturing.

Malaysia Trade Momentum: Bank Negara Malaysia said policy consistency is keeping investor confidence steady as Malaysia’s Q2 GDP rose 6% y/y and H1 trade hit RM1.79tn, with June exports at a record RM340.9bn. Philippines Blue Economy: Manila secured €200m ($230m) from France’s AFD for marine ecosystem protection and blue-economy projects, targeting livelihoods for 3m+ coastal workers. Digital Trade for MSMEs: Grab and the International Trade Centre launched a nationwide push to help Filipino micro, small and medium firms use digital tools and track how training boosts sales. UK Labor Costs Debate: A UK business group warned Andy Burnham’s Employment Rights plans could deter hiring temporary workers, pushing firms toward overtime or offshoring. US-Iran Economic Pressure: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US will roll out “economic isolation” measures “never seen before,” alongside an indefinite naval blockade. Trade Talks Under Strain: India-US negotiations continue even as a US Senate bill proposes up to 100% tariffs on Russian oil buyers, raising uncertainty for India’s energy-linked trade. Housing as Growth Lever: Rhode Island’s Quonset plans workforce apartments to tackle recruitment and retention bottlenecks tied to the housing shortage. Tourism as Backbone: Nepal’s tourism leadership urged tighter public-private coordination, with airline and tourism-board reforms aimed at boosting foreign-currency earnings.

Trade & Investment: Canada’s Carney faces a tariff deadline as U.S. talks press for concessions to avert 50% duties; Detroit automakers warn a North American trade deal revamp could cost billions. Regional Integration: East African business leaders urge faster EAC integration, citing non-tariff barriers and logistics costs that block investment. Blue Economy & Infrastructure: The Philippines secures €200m from France’s AFD for marine ecosystem protection and livelihoods, while Quezon province moves to restore and expand ports to boost trade flows. Government Finance: ROC reports 2Q revenue nearly doubling to $5.1m with higher government R&D activity; another public-sector financial update shows surpluses driven by stronger revenues. Business Policy: Saudi Arabia’s sales campaign offers over one million discounted products under tighter discount rules; UK’s CMA proposes removing many consumer-protection compliance rules. Economic Growth Watch: Britain’s Q2 GDP rises 0.4% despite political unrest and Middle East war fallout. Development & Skills: Nigeria shifts agriculture curricula toward 80% practical training to build job-ready skills. Central America Trade: El Salvador signs a preferential tariff deal with Belize covering 400 tariff lines to cut non-tariff barriers.

Monetary Tightening: Mongolia’s central bank lifted its benchmark rate to 12.5% and raised reserve requirements to 14.5% to cool 13% July inflation driven by fuel and food. Economic Growth Watch: Russia’s economy rebounded with 1.3% GDP growth in Q2, but economists warn the wartime boost may not last. UK Macro: Britain’s GDP rose 0.4% in Q2, with political unrest and US-Iran war fallout weighing on the outlook. Labor Policy: The UK’s proposed zero-hours contract ban faces pushback after estimates put employer costs up to £3bn a year. Trade & Integration: India and SACU signed terms of reference to restart preferential trade talks, while South Africa’s SADC chair push targets 50% intra-regional trade and more mineral beneficiation. Digital Skills: Tripura and Salesforce/DIT plan AI-era training for 10,000+ learners via Trailhead. Regional Disruption: Assam-Arunachal border blockades and clashes threaten cross-border commerce. Disaster Response & Fiscal Stress: Colombia invoked an “economic emergency” to speed earthquake relief and reconstruction amid a tight fiscal backdrop.

Trade Policy Tensions: Canada’s lead trade negotiator Janice Charette warned that a new 50% U.S. tariff move could derail talks, as Ottawa pushes for tariff relief tied to provincial alcohol bans. Preferential Trade Deals: India and SACU signed Terms of Reference to negotiate a Preferential Trade Agreement, aiming to finish within a year while focusing on targeted market access. Antitrust Costs: A California antitrust bill (AB 1776) could cost the state economy about $670B over a decade and $9B in tax revenue, according to an updated analysis. Digital Money & Payments: The Bank of England’s Digital Pound Lab is testing stablecoin and CBDC rails in one cross-border transaction, feeding into a later go/no-go decision. Cross-Border Settlement: SBI and Nodeinfra launched a Japan-Korea corridor to bypass the dollar using atomic swaps, pending progress on South Korea’s won stablecoin rules. Inflation Watch: U.S. consumer inflation stayed mild in July, keeping rate-hike odds lower even as shelter drove most of the monthly uptick. Public Spending & Growth: Ontario’s Tourism Ministry spent over $9M on ads in 2025-26, including $2.19M tied to Ontario Place redevelopment. Energy & Trade Infrastructure: Saudi Arabia approved joining a UN convention to strengthen legal recognition of electronic contracts in international trade. Youth & Skills: Kenya’s NITA kicked off August trade tests for 21,000+ candidates across 512 centres.

Trade & Investment: The Philippines and New Zealand launched their joint economic commission, aiming to lift bilateral trade by 50% by 2030, with talks spanning agriculture, renewable energy, education, inclusive trade and defense-linked manufacturing. Banking & Growth: Nigeria’s bankers’ institute urged lenders to shift capital from falling-yield government securities toward MSMEs, backed by new SME forums and clinics to improve access to finance. Energy & Security: Oil prices rose as Iran signaled the Strait of Hormuz would stay closed unless US conditions are met, keeping Middle East supply disruption risk elevated. Local Governance: South Africa’s DA unveiled a 2026 municipal manifesto promising cleaner, safer towns and more private-sector infrastructure delivery—prompting debate over whether this is new or already happening. Public Finance: Liberia’s finance ministry backed universal health insurance as a way to protect households from catastrophic costs and support long-term growth. Regulation & Housing: Hong Kong’s Asean trade push highlights the challenge of capturing value beyond re-exports, while Gibraltar advanced prediction-market rules and a summit to attract regulated operators. Safety & Policy: Thailand pledged tighter gun controls after two deadly shootings near Bangkok, including a review of permits and enforcement.

Bangladesh Industrial Revival: Prime Minister Tarique Rahman signed lease deals to reopen three long-closed state jute mills under private management, backed by about Tk 619 crore in investment and 11,629 jobs. Trade & Customs Execution: Finance and Planning Minister Amir Khasru Mahmud Chowdhury said Bangladesh is tightening port and customs coordination to cut cargo clearance delays and boost exports, with deadlines and a crackdown on unethical practices. Energy Security Push: The power minister outlined a plan to ease the energy crisis by using domestic gas (including Bhola), importing gas from Malaysia, and expanding solar—arguing plants can’t run without fuel and subsidies rise when costly liquid-fuel generation is needed. Digital Governance: Ghana’s communications ministry pledged to strengthen digital governance in the civil service, while a digital technology director warned transformation can’t be government-only and called for partnerships to turn policy into jobs. Fiscal Transparency Benchmark: A US State Department report found 73 of 139 governments met minimum fiscal transparency requirements, with 14 showing significant progress. Ghana Trade Turnaround: Ghana’s merchandise exports surpassed imports for the first time in nearly two decades, driven by gold, with a record 2025 surplus and a near ninefold rise in total trade since 2004. US–Trinidad & Tobago Ties: US officials said they’re supporting private-sector projects to deepen energy, investment, and supply-chain cooperation. UNIDO–CATL Circular Economy Pact: UNIDO and CATL signed a framework to collaborate on circular economy, advanced batteries, and green industrial development, including standards-based market support.

Sovereign Credit Watch: Fitch affirmed India’s ‘BBB-’ rating with a stable outlook, citing resilient growth despite energy-shock headwinds. Urban Logistics Decarbonisation: Porter flagged off its 10,000th electric truck in Delhi, touting lower emissions and fewer empty runs. Digital Payments Policy: India’s Finance Minister said UPI and P2P transfers stay free, but MDR rules may shift costs toward merchants. Energy Costs & Competitiveness: E.ON UK urged moving green energy levies off business bills into general taxation to protect investment. UK Fiscal Pressure: Economists warn Andy Burnham’s first Budget could trigger another large tax rise, with households likely to bear the brunt. China Growth Worries: Coverage highlights slowing consumption and a “cold” economy narrative, raising anxiety over long-term sustainability. Nigeria Food Security Push: Tinubu unveiled a plan to double livestock’s $32bn contribution, aiming for a modern, tech-driven sector. Consumer Protection in E-commerce: A new draft consumer program in one country targets unfair contract terms and stronger rules for distance/electronic commerce. Trade & Connectivity: Indonesia pressed BRICS to defend multilateralism as trade shifts, while Malaysia-China air links and Hong Kong’s new Kuala Lumpur trade office underline regional commerce momentum.

FDI Watch: Qatar’s inward FDI rose 3.3% in Q1 2026 to QR172.2bn, while outward investment climbed 3.5% to QR221.7bn—signaling confidence in both domestic growth and overseas expansion. Waste & Industry Policy: In Portugal’s Algarve, campaigners are attacking a €300m government plan for an energy-from-waste incineration facility, arguing it undermines recycling targets and diverts money from a circular economy. Trade & Customs Reform: Nigeria’s Revenue Monitoring Group praised Customs for digital, intelligence-led reforms—highlighting the Unified Customs Management System and B’Odogwu platform to cut interference and speed clearance. Sanctions & Geopolitics: Iran rejected US claims of “suffocating” it via sanctions, calling the approach a coercion “addiction” rather than policy. EV Market Access: Armenia received an extra 5,000 duty-free EV import quota from the Eurasian Economic Commission, lifting 2026 total to 20,000 units. AI & Skills: The UAE ranked 10th globally for net AI talent inflows, with the World Bank citing residency incentives, AI literacy and a unified federal AI/data authority. Labor Market: US jobs data showed a “frozen” labor market dynamic—hiring is weak while labor force participation falls—raising focus on upcoming inflation data.

Semiconductors & Trade Policy: Malaysia is pushing its electrical and electronics push—especially semiconductors and sensors—while tightening export-control compliance to keep Penang and the Northern Region competitive in global supply chains. Housing & Data-Driven Planning: Malaysia’s new National Housing Policy 2026-2035 shifts development toward local needs and market demand to cut unsold homes, aiming for one million affordable units by 2035. Monetary Policy Watch: The Philippines’ central bank says pressure to hike rates has eased as growth slows and inflation cools, but it will keep tightening if core inflation doesn’t stay on track. Public Spending Pipeline: Malaysia’s Economy Ministry expects to finish screening 2027 development spending proposals by mid-August for submission to Finance. UPI Rules: India’s finance ministry says UPI users won’t face transaction charges; any Merchant Discount Rate would be limited to select merchants at a nominal rate. EU Governance: A debate over ending unanimity in EU foreign policy highlights how member states still use vetoes when interests are at stake. Minimum Wage Talks: Serbia’s minimum wage negotiations begin today, with unions pressing for double-digit increases. Energy & Security Link: South Korea orders Gwangju Air Base functions to move by mid-2028 to speed up a second semiconductor belt. Ukraine Cultural Economy: Russia’s strikes have burned millions of Ukrainian books, threatening the publishing industry and national language identity. FCRA Overhaul: India’s FCRA Amendment Bill and updated rules face renewed scrutiny as states and NGOs argue about foreign funding limits. Transport & Growth: Scotland’s bus fare cap debate is tied to congestion costs, with research estimating millions of hours of lost time and tens of millions in annual economic value.

Geopolitics & Energy Pressure: Trump says the U.S. is “semi-negotiating” with Iran while keeping a naval blockade, framing Iran’s inflation and cash crunch as leverage. Fiscal Policy Watch: New Zealand’s National faces criticism for a “least ambitious” debt plan, with rules targeting surplus by 2028/29 and debt under 40% of GDP. Trade & Growth: UK launches consultations on deepening trade with the Philippines ahead of possible CPTPP accession, aiming to cut tariffs and streamline rules. Regional Integration (Africa): MTN Ghana chair Dr. Ishmael Yamson urges African governments to back home-grown multinationals and harmonize regulations to make AfCFTA work. Infrastructure Execution: Philippines growth slows to 2.3% in Q2; economists say second-half recovery hinges on faster infrastructure spending and better budget execution. Tax Administration: Mauritius moves to ratify the India DTAA protocol with a principal purpose test to curb treaty shopping while reassuring genuine investors. Housing Finance: Nigeria’s FMBN launches a diaspora mortgage pathway in London to expand NHF access and investment in housing. Governance & Delivery: Nigeria’s Rural Electrification Agency board is inaugurated, with a push to tie decisions to electrification and inclusion.

Digital Government Progress: Jordan says 85.8% of government services are digitized by end-H1 2026, with about 2.8 million activated digital IDs on the Sanad app and new education/digital-skills tools rolling out. Public Finance & Cost of Living: UK data points to resilience, with economists expecting GDP growth around 0.4% in Q2, while heatwaves and construction weakness could dent June. Energy Prices Watch: Pakistan’s petroleum minister hints consumers may get “good news” on petrol prices if global oil stays stable over the next two days, after avoiding shortages during regional tensions. Trade & Security Shock: UAE warns of economic fallout from attacks on shipping and the Strait of Hormuz closure, citing Adnoc vessel impacts; separately, Russia-Ukraine strikes continue to hit civilian areas. Industrial Policy & Retaliation: A Reuters look at Germany-China trade shows exports down and the deficit widening, as China shifts toward domestic value chains. Governance & Revenue Politics: Nigeria’s revenue chief Zacch Adedeji faces backlash after comments dismissing critics of Tinubu’s reforms, reigniting debate on how reforms cushion households. Supply Chain Bottleneck: Nepal-China trade at Tatopani halts after a border road closure tied to landslides and alleged maintenance failures. BRICS Trade Agenda: Indonesia says BRICS trade ministers backed most priorities in Jaipur, focusing on MSME finance, resilient supply chains, and keeping WTO central.