AGP Executive Report

USMCA Renewal Shock: The Trump administration says it won’t renew the US-Mexico-Canada trade pact in its current form, keeping it in force while talks continue—raising fresh uncertainty for farmers and manufacturers ahead of the next review cycle. Trade Policy Pressure: U.S. agricultural groups are urging faster progress, warning that without long-term certainty the agreement’s market access and dispute system could be harder to plan around. EU-Armenia Pivot: EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen pledged €18m in aid and tariff-free access for nearly 80% of Armenian farm exports as Armenia faces “economic coercion” from Russia. AI Governance & State Stakes: Reports say the U.S. government and Anthropic have not discussed a government equity stake, after OpenAI-related talks about a 5% stake reignited debate over who benefits from AI growth. Regional Growth Deals: India and Japan unveiled a 16-point roadmap on economic security, AI, energy resilience and critical technologies, while Morocco and South Korea push to finalize a broader economic partnership by year-end. Local Trade Performance: Malaysia says a stronger ringgit hasn’t hurt exports—January-May trade rose 18.3% and the surplus nearly tripled. Blue Economy Push (Nigeria): Nigeria’s marine minister urged faster implementation with states and private partners to turn marine and blue economy policy into measurable jobs and investment. Gaza Economic Collapse: Gaza’s chamber of commerce says 1,000 days of war have cut GDP by 85–88%, with recovery potentially taking decades.

Income Upgrade: The World Bank reclassified the Philippines as an upper-middle-income economy, with GNI per capita rising to $4,850 in 2025; President Marcos says the shift should boost investment and jobs. North America Trade: The US declined to extend USMCA in its current form, starting a 10-year wind-down clock while pushing talks on tougher auto rules of origin and “economic security” provisions. AI and Public Stakes: OpenAI is reported to have proposed a 5% stake for the US government (and similar stakes for other major AI firms) to share AI upside amid rising Washington scrutiny. Monetary Policy: Japan’s BOJ should raise rates at a moderate pace to curb excessive yen weakness, a government panel member argues, endorsing further hikes this year. Tax and Housing Certainty: Australia removed retrospective CGT changes after industry pushback, aiming to protect investor certainty while expanding foreign-resident CGT coverage. Digital Governance: India asked Meta to pause WhatsApp usernames rollout and explain safeguards, citing scam and impersonation risks. Energy Efficiency: Dozens of countries backed energy efficiency as a core policy tool to cut costs and improve resilience.

AI Governance: A UN panel warns AI is advancing faster than science and government policy, raising fears of deceptive behavior and catastrophic harm without stronger regulation. Trade Policy Shock: The US says it won’t renew USMCA “in its current form,” triggering annual reviews while negotiations continue—keeping North American tariffs and auto rules in limbo. Workforce & Labor: Trump nominates Keith Sonderling as Labor Secretary, signaling a shift in workforce priorities. Regional Trade Integration (Africa): Nigeria’s trade minister pushes AfCFTA implementation and boosts Sahrawi Republic participation in the bloc’s institutions. Industrial Growth: Jordan’s industrial sector grows 4.8% in Q1 2026, driving nearly 40% of GDP growth. Development Finance: The World Bank approves $1.25bn for Nigeria reforms across power, digital, agriculture, trade and revenue to spur jobs and private investment. Fuel Relief: Zambia extends fuel excise and VAT zero-rating for 90 days to cushion consumers. Tourism & Heritage: Nepal plans a wellness-tourism secretariat under the tourism board, while Delhi funds new archives and archaeology fellowships. Infrastructure Planning: Wales reviews options to widen the Brynglas tunnel to ease M4 congestion.

SME & Digital Push: Zimbabwe’s SME officials urged firms to adopt AI, e-commerce and product certification to reach global markets. Monetary Policy Coordination: Nepal’s central bank acting governor said monetary policy must back growth targets while keeping inflation and stability in check, with tighter coordination with fiscal policy. Industrial Policy & SEZ: Papua New Guinea signed an MOU to move Oro’s balsa industry downstream, with plans for a special economic zone to boost jobs and export value. Health Investment Incentives: Türkiye issued incentives for 161 health projects, mobilizing over $1.5bn and targeting 5,000 jobs. War’s Economic Costs: Ukraine’s economy ministry put environmental damage from the war at over 7 trillion hryvnias, including water and biodiversity losses. E-commerce Tax Enforcement: Indonesia ordered major marketplaces to collect income tax from sellers starting Aug 1. AI Export Controls: The US lifted export restrictions on Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5. Consumer Sentiment: US consumer confidence rose in June, but economists warned households still feel squeezed. Trade Pact Clock: USMCA extension talks face a July 1 deadline, with a decade-long wind-down review expected. Housing & Demographics: Vietnam rolled out incentives after scrapping its two-child policy, extending maternity benefits and adding cash support.

Trade Policy Deadlines: Canada, the U.S. and Mexico kick off a required CUSMA review on July 1, with only an extension or a renegotiation option—raising uncertainty for North American exporters and consumers. EU–China Trade Talks: The EU and China launch three months of trade consultations aimed at stabilizing a relationship strained by tariffs, export controls and market access disputes. Monetary Policy Watch: Bangladesh Bank keeps its policy rate at 10% for July–December while inflation stays stubborn, as business groups warn fiscal and monetary plans aren’t aligned. Digital & Business Regulation: Bulgaria’s IT association urges an open dialogue with the new innovation ministry, warning that one integrator’s growing role could squeeze competition. Energy & Climate: B.C. hits major low-carbon fuel milestones, with sustainable aviation fuel reaching 3.9% of jet supply ahead of schedule. Rural Development: Zimbabwe commissions the Wanezi Dam project, positioning dams as engines for irrigation, jobs and rural transformation. Media Ownership Oversight: The UK signals it may intervene in Paramount’s Warner Bros. Discovery takeover to protect media plurality. Public Services & Cost of Living: Malaysia expands RAHMAH Sales to e-commerce via TikTok Shop, pushing discounts on essential goods.

Trade Diplomacy: US Ambassador Sergio Gor says the India-US trade deal is in the “final steps,” with about “last 1%” of items left, as talks with USTR Jamieson Greer and India’s commerce team gather momentum. EU-China Friction Management: The EU and China launched a structured trade dialogue and set an October push for “tangible results” to ease disputes and rebalance market access. UK Growth Update: The UK economy grew 0.6% in Q1 and 2025 growth was revised slightly lower, a mixed read for policymakers as political leadership shifts loom. Monetary Resilience: ECB chief Christine Lagarde argues Europe is more resilient to shocks thanks to stronger banking rules and low-carbon investment. EV Policy Shockwaves (India): Delhi approved EV Policy 2026, banning incentives for hybrids and tightening eligibility timelines and subsidy conditions starting July 1. Energy & Industry: Egypt’s petroleum minister reviewed EGPC plans to boost oil and gas output, while Indonesia said LNG price cuts should ease industrial costs. Governance & Delivery: New Zealand’s Treasury was rated “weak” on economy-wide policy advice in a performance review, and a separate review found ministers losing confidence in Treasury forecasting. Fiscal Compliance (Nigeria): Nigeria Customs stepped up sensitisation for the Green Tax Surcharge ahead of its July 1 start. Social Policy (Ghana): President Mahama urged traditional leaders to back Free Primary Healthcare by driving uptake of community health services.

Regional Finance Integration: SADC ministers of finance and investment will meet in Harare on July 2 to push financial integration, capital market links, and macroeconomic coordination across member states. Flood Response & Urban Risk: Ghana escalated flood relief in Accra and nearby areas after days of heavy rain disrupted homes, businesses, and infrastructure, with officials citing extreme weather, drainage strain, and planning failures. Food Security Push Meets Reality Check: Nepal’s rice planting is only 11.3% complete despite a self-reliance push, with inadequate rainfall and limited irrigation blamed. UK Economic Power Shift: Labour leadership frontrunner Andy Burnham outlined a devolution-first economic vision, promising “good growth in every postcode” and fiscal discipline. EU–China Trade Talks: The EU and China launched a three-month ministerial platform to manage frictions over a €360bn trade imbalance, aiming for “tangible results” by October. US Policy & Markets: The Supreme Court expanded presidential power over the FTC by overturning a 1935 precedent, while economists said US core PCE inflation could be revised lower after BEA methodology changes. Migration Policy: US Homeland Security said Haitian TPS holders must apply for permanent residence, switch visas, or leave. Debt Relief for Crisis-Hit Sudan: China cancelled about $50m of Sudan’s interest-free loans as the conflict deepens economic collapse.

UK Inflation Watch: Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill urged policymakers not to get complacent as CPI stays above target, warning that past “too-easy” policy left inflation too high for too long. UK Politics & Economic Strategy: Labour PM-in-waiting Andy Burnham is set to unveil a devolution-first economic agenda, aiming to push decisions and budgets to regions while boosting reindustrialisation and housebuilding. Middle East Trade Shock: Fresh US-Iran strikes around the Strait of Hormuz have rattled markets and oil prices, with a fragile ceasefire framework now looking shaky. China-Japan Trade Security: China added 20 Japanese entities to an export watchlist tied to dual-use risks, escalating rare-earth and economic-security tensions. US-China Tech Controls: Apple asked the US government for permission to buy CXMT DRAM, after US restrictions made licenses likely to be denied—raising pressure on device costs. India Trade Execution: India-UK trade pact implementation starts July 15, but experts say real gains will depend on business readiness, supply-chain alignment, and compliance capacity. Pakistan Pharma Crackdown: Pakistan announced a medicine barcode system to go live within 60 days to improve traceability and curb counterfeit drugs. Regional Industrial Push: Malaysia’s Kedah reported RM1.4bn in approved investments via 50 projects, betting on hi-tech parks and green industrial zones to spread jobs beyond cities.

Global Macro & Rates: The BIS warns that rising public debt, supply shocks, and stubborn inflation—plus the sustainability risks of the AI boom—are pressuring policymakers to keep fiscal and financial foundations solid. US Immigration Policy: The US homeland security secretary told migrants on temporary protected status to apply for permanent residence or leave, after a Supreme Court ruling opened the door to ending protections for large groups. Middle East Trade & Shipping: Iran and the US traded new strikes tied to Strait of Hormuz passage rules, as ceasefire hopes fade and both sides accuse the other of violating terms. APEC Tourism & Digital Growth: APEC tourism ministers in Macao pushed “digital innovation” and better connectivity to boost regional tourism and SME competitiveness. Philippines Outlook: Capital Economics expects the Philippines’ recovery to stay sluggish, forecasting 3% growth in 2026 below government targets amid weak confidence and tight fiscal policy. India Trade Diplomacy: Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal leads business talks in Greece to expand trade, investment, and startup links, building on momentum from the UK. Energy & Investment: Egypt met Norway’s Scatec on a potential $5bn expansion in renewables, desalination, and clean-energy data centers. Infrastructure: India’s Chennai–Bengaluru expressway nears completion, aiming to cut travel time sharply by July 2026.

US–Iran Escalation: Fresh strikes and counter-strikes are again testing a fragile ceasefire, with both sides accusing each other of violations and warning of tighter enforcement in the Strait of Hormuz—raising risks for shipping and energy prices. India–US Trade Push: US Ambassador Sergio Gor says Trump is likely to visit India in early 2027 as a long-awaited trade deal nears completion, with cooperation expanding across energy, defence and tech. UK Leadership & Growth Constraints: Andy Burnham’s rise to replace Keir Starmer could be politically smoother than economically—he may still be boxed in by Labour’s platform and inherited policy choices. IMF Support for Congo: The IMF approved a new $350m disbursement for the Democratic Republic of Congo, tied to reforms, governance upgrades and climate resilience funding. Gender Budget, Implementation Gap: Bangladesh’s gender-responsive budget boosts allocations, but experts point to chronic underspending and structural barriers that keep women’s economic participation lagging. Digital Economy Outreach: Malaysia’s communications ministry plans more community outreach via NADI, pushing training for online income like selling products and becoming TikTok affiliates. MSME Focus in Nigeria: Nigeria’s government highlights MSME awards and new support steps, framing small businesses as the backbone for jobs and growth. Tourism Policy Pressure: Pakistan faces a tourism trade deficit, with analysts urging visa, infrastructure and promotion reforms to unlock export earnings.

Trade & Diplomacy: B.C. Premier David Eby heads to China to cut dependence on the U.S., aiming to double trade and push deals in lumber, agriculture and LNG. Energy & Security: Iran and the U.S. trade fresh strikes after accusations of ceasefire violations, while a tanker is reported hit in the Strait of Hormuz—raising shipping and oil-risk concerns. Central Banking & Rule of Law: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh faces pivotal policy and legal tests, with the U.S. Supreme Court expected to rule on whether a Fed governor can be fired “for cause.” Housing & Industrial Policy: UK housing plans reportedly include a state-owned developer to tackle low building rates, as officials weigh how to finance and scale supply. Small Business & Jobs: Nigeria’s Tinubu signs the NIMC Act and approves free corporate registration for 250,000 MSMEs, while officials tout MSME awards as proof of an enabling environment. Market Access: Ghana opens a Trade House in Philadelphia to boost non-traditional exports, targeting $1bn to the U.S. by end-2026. Water & Agriculture: Idaho’s underground aquifer is rapidly declining, with farmers and water infrastructure framed as the path forward. Green Growth: Sarawak pivots toward a low-carbon, tech-led economy, using AI and carbon trading to value forests as carbon sinks.

US-Iran Shipping Tensions: Washington accused Tehran of attacking a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting US strikes on missile/drone sites and Iran retaliatory action—raising fresh risks for a ceasefire that diplomats are trying to lock in. Philippines-Canada Trade Push: President Marcos heads to Canada (July 1–4) to accelerate talks on a Philippines-Canada FTA and a Canada-ASEAN FTA, aiming for completion this year. US-India Deal Nears Finish: US Ambassador Sergio Gor says the trade agreement is down to a “handful of issues,” mainly legal language, with signing expected in coming weeks/months. Energy & Industry Policy: Japan and India plan a biogas vehicle framework to expand CNG output for cleaner transport; Hungary ends its emergency fuel price cap as global markets stabilise. UK Savings Shake-Up: Britain confirms ISA reforms from April 2027, including a 22% charge on interest in cash held inside Stocks & Shares ISAs and a lower Cash ISA limit for under-65s. AI & Markets: US stocks slipped as AI costs and possible IPO delays weighed sentiment, while Anthropic won partial permission to redeploy its Mythos model.

Trade & Tariffs: Trump escalated the digital tax fight by warning Europe of 100% tariffs on exports if countries levy taxes on U.S. tech services, raising the risk of a fresh trade clash. EU–China Auto Tensions: Despite higher EU trade barriers, Chinese plug-in hybrid and EV exports to Europe surged, underscoring how protectionism is colliding with demand. Free-Trade Bloc Expansion: CPTPP members agreed on preliminary talks to add Indonesia, the Philippines and the UAE, with accession tied to tariff cuts and IP standards. Energy & Commodities: Iraq’s oil ministry denied any plan to leave OPEC, saying any quota issues will be handled through OPEC’s technical process. Public Finance & Housing: A government doubled mortgage interest tax relief for first-time homeowners, aiming to boost disposable income and homebuilding. Digital Infrastructure: Ukraine’s economy ministry signed deals with Kyivstar/VEON to explore a sovereign, AI-ready data center as part of recovery financing. Industrial Policy: Odisha launched “Go East” to speed investment and clearances for eastern India manufacturing. Labor & Jobs: Ghana lawmakers urged keeping “1D1F” to tackle youth unemployment, arguing the 24-hour economy hasn’t delivered expected jobs. Disaster & Sanctions: Venezuela’s earthquakes killed about 235 and injured 4,300; the U.S. Treasury moved to waive some sanctions to enable relief transactions. Tech & Aviation: Malaysia showcased a low-altitude economy mini sandbox to test drones and unmanned traffic systems, targeting major GDP and job gains.

India Economic Shock & Energy Hedging: S&P says Iran-war spillovers are India’s worst since 2022, pushing inflation risk and forcing a shift toward longer-term fiscal recalibration, eased foreign investment rules, and tighter energy/labour diversification. US-China Trade Mechanism: China and the US agreed to set up a bilateral trade council to negotiate reciprocal tariff cuts on goods worth $30B+ and formalise a structured dialogue. India-US Trade Deal Timing: Piyush Goyal says the US deal won’t take effect unless India gets a clear tariff advantage over competitors, with implementation tied to tariff-system changes ahead of deadlines. India-UK Trade Rollout: India’s CETA and the Double Contribution Convention are set to start on July 15, with both sides pitching it as a template for future trade deals. Fuel Relief in the Pacific: Fiji expects major fuel price cuts from July as oil prices ease with US-Iran de-escalation and Strait of Hormuz reopening. Nepal-India Tea Dispute: Nepal’s tea industry restarted after assurances, but producers warn India’s stricter import testing could keep delays and factory shutdowns going. South Asia Trade Push: Bangladesh’s PM urges China to cut its trade gap and diversify imports; China backs Bangladesh’s new government and promises high-quality Belt and Road cooperation. South Africa-China Regulation Talks: Pretoria and Beijing plan regulatory MoUs to deepen trade and investment, including an early harvest push via SACU. Labour & Safety Flashpoint: A Kolkata warehouse collapse killed 11 workers, spotlighting weak enforcement in informal warehousing. Human Rights Meets Trade Risk: South Korea’s “salt farm slave” case returns as trafficking victims are recognised, raising scrutiny that could spill into trade and compliance. Africa Trade Resilience: Afreximbank reports Africa’s 2025 growth at 4.5% and trade at $1.5T, but flags a $74B trade finance gap and logistics disruptions.

Public Finance & Growth: The Philippines says it will speed up infrastructure spending in H2 2026 after cautious fund releases tied to last year’s flood-control scandal dragged growth. Budget Reform: Bangladesh’s finance minister says Dhaka is moving toward a more inclusive, modern budget model to broaden participation in the economy. Local Accountability & Sanitation: Ghana’s sanitation stakeholders are urging the Local Government Ministry to tighten oversight of sanitation delivery, including publishing KPI performance for MMDCEs and addressing strained ties with service providers. Culture Policy Access: Ghana’s revised National Cultural Policy is now available for free online, aiming to boost transparency and stakeholder buy-in. Trade Diplomacy: China and the US agreed to set up a trade council to discuss reciprocal tariff cuts and related cooperation. US Industrial Policy Scrutiny: US senators ask GAO to investigate whether Commerce officials properly managed the Hollings MEP program. Energy Deals: Ukraine says more than €1B in energy financing agreements will be signed in Gdańsk to support winter readiness. AI & Economy: Stanford economist Chad Jones joins Anthropic to assess AI risks and economic impacts. Global Markets: UNCTAD warns geopolitics and energy volatility are weighing more heavily on global trade and finance than trade policy alone. Cuba Reforms: Cuba rushed sweeping economic reforms to expand private activity, loosen price controls, and open parts of the economy to investment. Infrastructure Concessions: Nigeria handed over Enugu’s Akanu Ibiam airport to a private consortium under a PPP for expansion and management.

BRICS Energy Diplomacy: India kicks off the 11th BRICS Energy Ministers’ meeting in Gurugram, pushing “Energy for All” and resilience as members juggle security, affordability, and clean power. Infrastructure Push: PM Modi’s PRAGATI review greenlit projects worth over Rs 30,000 crore, aiming to speed roads, power, industrial corridors and metro links. US-India Trade Tension: A new explainer revisits why the India-U.S. bilateral trade deal has slipped, citing stalled talks over agriculture/dairy and India’s Russia oil purchases. Monetary Policy Clash Risk: Reuters reports Japan’s draft economic blueprint urges the BOJ to back private demand and keep borrowing costs low, raising the odds of tighter government-central bank coordination. Fuel Cost Shock in the Pacific: Pacific finance ministers and private sector leaders discuss long-term fixes to imported-fuel dependence as Iran-U.S. talks add uncertainty. Aviation Costs Watch: India’s civil aviation minister says airlines may face fare/charge changes only if ATF price stability holds, alongside a Rs 10,000 crore stabilisation fund. Housing Market Reform (UK): The UK plans faster home sales by making sellers prepare key documents earlier, targeting shorter timelines and fewer failed deals.