AGP Executive Report

U.S. Farm Aid Uncertainty: Congress is weighing how to distribute a potential $12B farm package, with USDA systems ready but details on programs like the Farmer Bridge Assistance still unsettled. Trade & Growth Signals: The U.S. goods trade deficit narrowed in June as imports fell, but exports dropped to a five-month low—raising concerns for Q2 growth. Consumer Confidence Watch: Americans’ confidence slipped as gas prices rose again amid heightened U.S.-Iran tensions, keeping the economy in a tepid mood. Regional Trade Push: Türkiye and Iraq reaffirmed a $30B trade target, linking progress to customs integration and the Development Road route. Energy & Water Security: Nepal and India agreed to raise electricity export capacity, while Pakistan faces renewed calls for a comprehensive water security policy to cut flood damage. Policy & Jobs Pressure: Ghana’s reintegration grant for evacuees and Nigeria’s education push highlight how governments are trying to translate budgets into livelihoods. Sustainability & Supply Chains: APEC forestry ministers backed action against illegal logging and trade in legal forest products, while Wildberries and Kyrgyz authorities focused on logistics and compensation for damaged goods.

Energy & Utilities Modernization: Romania’s cabinet approved a “state of alert” for energy and hydrology amid diesel-market strain tied to disruptions around Novorossiisk and Middle East conflict, with officials pushing faster market management and infrastructure readiness. Monetary Policy Credibility: S&P said Bank Indonesia’s governor resignation won’t change Indonesia’s sovereign ratings, but could raise uncertainty over future monetary policy direction. Tax & Wages Policy: Malaysia’s economy minister said wage growth must come first before expanding the personal income tax base, responding to OECD calls to broaden taxes; OECD also forecast Malaysia around 5% growth in 2026-27. Trade & Tariffs: U.S. trade officials argued new forced-labor tariffs should have limited economic impact; Turkey’s trade minister said negotiations with the EU, US and others continue to shield Turkish industry from EU protectionism. Cross-Border Infrastructure: Canada opened the Windsor–Detroit bridge to strengthen a key trade corridor even as U.S.-Canada tariff tensions rise. IMF Support: Ghana’s final ECF review cleared a $371m disbursement, marking another step in fiscal stabilization. Digital Economy & Connectivity: Pakistan accelerated 5G and fibre expansion to boost growth, while Malaysia discussed an economic security framework and energy resilience planning.

Trade Policy Shock: The U.S. is pressing for new tariffs and Section 301-style measures, drawing fresh backlash from Finland and warnings that trade wars can’t be “won” with tariffs. North America Infrastructure: A new Canada–U.S. bridge opens in Detroit, aiming to cut friction and speed up a key auto and freight corridor despite ongoing trade disputes. Digital & Security: A major APAC retail cybersecurity push highlights how rapid digital commerce expansion is widening the attack surface for businesses. Energy Transition Under Pressure: Offshore wind scaling faces grid, port, and supply-chain bottlenecks, while North Sea drilling uncertainty is already triggering job-cut threats. Local Governance & Costs: Research links declining local journalism to higher borrowing costs for municipalities, raising the stakes for public oversight. Africa Diplomacy & Water: AU foreign ministers arrive in Addis Ababa for talks centered on sustainable water and sanitation—an economic growth issue as much as a health one. Labor & AI Work: U.S. workplace AI protections are increasingly tied to union coverage, with bargaining seen as the practical guardrail. Policy Implementation Gap: A recurring theme: governments publish plans, but ownership and follow-through often fail—leaving rural communities and workers still waiting on real economic recovery.

UK Economic Tech Push: Britain’s new PM elevates AI to the center of government with a Prime Ministerial AI Taskforce, aiming to speed public-service upgrades and growth. Malaysia Development & Competitiveness: Malaysia’s Economy Ministry reports strong 2026 development-spend momentum and flags 2027 plans of about RM58bn, while officials cite an IMD competitiveness jump to 15th as a magnet for higher-quality jobs. Trade Resilience Deal: Singapore and Australia sign a protocol to keep essential goods flowing during disruptions, including commitments around export restrictions. Georgia Logistics & Climate Rules: Georgia touts a decade-best first-half cargo performance and advances climate competitiveness with emissions monitoring—while also delaying parts of its single-use plastic packaging bans to give businesses time. Forced-Labour Tariff Response: South Africa moves to publish rules to prohibit forced- and child-labour goods after US tariff pressure. Creative Economy Payments: Kenya migrates copyright royalties collection to the eCitizen platform via PAVRISK to improve transparency and reduce leakages. Tourism Investment Angle: Zimbabwe urges diaspora remittances into tourism projects, pitching the sector as a fast route to economic transformation.

Monetary Policy Watch: RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said price stability stays the top priority as inflation risks re-emerge, with the next MPC decision to be data-dependent. Trade & Tariffs: Trump’s new Section 301 tariffs face fresh legal challenges after earlier court defeats, with duties covering 80+ countries and 99.4% of U.S. trade; India says it will keep negotiating while 45% of its exports are exempt. Public Finance & Delivery: The Philippines reported infrastructure spending down nearly 43% in the first five months as tighter governance and audits delayed capital disbursements. Climate Policy: Australia’s retirement of Climate Active and pressure to expand carbon pricing into electricity signal a shift away from unlimited emissions offsets. Energy & Geopolitics: U.S.-Iran attacks paused temporarily, easing Gulf shipping and oil-market pressure, while the war’s wider maritime disruptions continue. Industrial Growth: Bangladesh’s MEP Hi-Tech plans a Tk 200cr electronics plant in Mirsarai Economic Zone, targeting about 2,000 jobs. Development Finance: Fiji secured $80m in AIIB sovereign-backed financing for resilience and climate/disaster preparedness reforms.

Trade Policy & Tariffs: India secured a lower 10% U.S. Section 301 tariff tier (vs 12.5% for some rivals) while about 45% of exports remain exempt, easing pressure on exporters as talks continue. Energy & Industry: Jordan inaugurated new natural gas stations in Aqaba to cut industrial energy costs; South Korea extended fuel tax cuts through September amid Middle East uncertainty. Macroeconomic Stability: Ghana’s “economic reset” faces six tests as it transitions from IMF oversight to monitoring, with fiscal discipline and inflation control key. Climate Risk: AfDB warns a “super” El Niño could cost Africa $10–$20B, hit GDP by 1–2% in affected countries, and trigger migration. Digital Finance & Governance: Ethiopia launched a digital finance trade body to coordinate policy and expand inclusion; Kazakhstan approved an AI-backed plan to shrink its shadow economy. Education & Human Capital: India’s education minister Dharmendra Pradhan resigned after NEET leak protests; Pralhad Joshi takes over. Business & Compliance: Zimbabwe reports insurance retreat even as broader financial inclusion rises, with motor policies dominating short-term coverage. Regional Diplomacy: Oman met the Philippines to expand trade, logistics, energy, and tech cooperation.

US Trade & Tariffs: The Supreme Court struck down Trump’s emergency tariff power, but the administration pivoted to new Section 301 duties on 60 economies (10%–12.5%), citing forced-labor rules—sparking fresh pushback from trade partners and already hitting Canadian manufacturers with order losses. Canada Trade Infrastructure: Canada’s Port of Vancouver “Gateway Strategy” fast-tracks approvals for Roberts Bank Terminal 2 to boost non-U.S. exports by 2035. India-US Talks: India says it will keep negotiating a bilateral trade deal after the U.S. imposed a new 10% tariff tier; agriculture access remains the sticking point as an Aug. 1 deadline nears. Middle East Supply Chains: With Strait of Hormuz disruption, Pakistan says goods are rerouted via Saudi Arabia and direct shipping has resumed, while Iran’s government and state TV clash over war-and-talks messaging. Regional Logistics & Digital Trade: Kazakhstan and Russia are digitalizing trade and logistics (smart cargo, AI transport analysis) as turnover nears $28B. Housing & Trade Policy: Canada and the Ismaili Council back affordable housing partnerships in multiple provinces, while Pakistan and others push tax and customs reforms to stabilize trade flows. Protests & Policy: India’s “Cockroach” movement ends after education minister Dharmendra Pradhan resigns over exam leak demands.

Forced-Labour Tariffs: Trump’s new 10%–12.5% tariffs on 60 economies over forced-labour claims sparked pushback from partners, including Australia and New Zealand, as governments warn trade damage and question the basis. Trade Diplomacy: India says it’s still studying US tariff developments while negotiating a bilateral trade framework, aiming to protect exporters as US Section 301 actions reshape talks. US–EU Retaliation Threats: Trump escalated pressure on the EU with a Section 301 investigation threat tied to fines on US tech firms, raising the risk of new tariff rounds. Malaysia Compliance Deadline: Malaysia says it will have two years after ratifying its US reciprocal trade deal to plug forced-labour import gaps and build a clearer mechanism to stop tainted goods entering supply chains. Energy & Growth Projects (Ghana): Ghana is finalising a $500m World Bank oil palm financing deal and advancing modular gas processing plus a 1,200MW gas power plant to cut costs and boost energy security. Digital Trade & E-Commerce: Kenya is drafting a digital services export strategy with World Bank support, while JD.com is partnering with Iraq’s GINI to expand cross-border e-commerce access. Consumer Protection (Estonia): Estonia’s justice ministry drafted a bill to extend warranties to three years and require repair availability to improve durability and repair rates. Transport Policy (UK): London’s robotaxi trials face calls to hand full oversight to TfL, as ministers control licensing for driverless testing. Maritime Risk (UN): UN chief Guterres warned renewed Red Sea attacks could trigger serious economic fallout beyond the region.

Forced-Labor Tariffs: The US rolled out new 10%–12.5% tariffs on imports from 60 partners, replacing expiring temporary levies and targeting goods tied to forced-labor claims. EU-Tech Trade Clash: Trump also launched a Section 301 probe into EU trade practices after EU fines on US tech firms, warning of possible tariffs in retaliation. Canada-US Friction: Ontario Premier Doug Ford said Trump’s Canada tariffs are raising costs and hurting jobs, as trade tensions also swirl around the Gordie Howe Bridge. Trade Deals: Canada and the UAE concluded a free-trade agreement, while Canada-Ecuador signed a deal amid criticism from civil groups. AI Policy Battle: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang backed an open-letter push to keep open-weight AI models available, countering tighter restrictions. Connectivity Push (Canada): Canada announced $141m for high-speed internet in rural Saskatchewan, aiming to reach more than 30,000 households. Industrial Location Strategy (India): Karnataka’s CM said a new policy in 100 days will help firms set up beyond Bengaluru with cheaper office space. Ghana Economy Debate: Ato Forson’s mid-year budget review drew praise for macro gains, but critics warned structural problems remain. Pakistan Health & Exports: DRAP’s used-device rules drew pushback from importers, while carpet exporters sought policy support to sustain global market share.

Forced-Labour Tariffs: The US is rolling out new 10%–12.5% duties on 60 trading partners under Section 301, replacing an expiring global levy and hitting major economies including China, India and the EU—prompting immediate pushback from Beijing and others. Trade-War Backlash: China says the tariff war “serves no one,” warning against escalation as Washington frames the move as forced-labour enforcement. UK Impact: Britain’s government argues it’s “in a better place” even as fresh Trump tariffs return, underscoring how quickly trade rules can shift. EU-China Tension: The EU flags its large trade gap with China as “unsustainable,” while policymakers watch how tariffs and industrial policy collide. Regional Deals: Canada and Ecuador sign a free trade deal in Ottawa, despite civil-society warnings about environmental and human-rights risks. Energy & Growth: Ghana advances gas processing and a gas-fired power plant in its mid-year budget, while South Africa seeks private capital to tackle its water crisis. Digital Government: Ajman renews trade licences using agentic AI in a headless, automated government service—an early signal of how commerce admin may modernize.

Trade & Tariffs: The U.S. is set to announce what happens as Trump’s 10% global duty expires, with officials saying any new levies will follow legal steps rather than a fixed timetable. Canada-U.S. Negotiations: Prime Minister Mark Carney told premiers Canada is “stronger” amid tariff threats, arguing unity is the best negotiating tool as leaders press Ottawa’s plan. AI Governance: Elon Musk urged peer review by rival AI labs before frontier models ship, with government stepping in only as a last resort; Canada meanwhile is consulting on AI transparency to help businesses and consumers understand AI interactions. Digital Economy & IP: Malaysia launched a Creative Economy Data Model to measure the sector’s GDP and jobs impact, while APEC ministers backed a joint digital and AI agenda focused on connectivity, skills, trust, and open investment. Energy & Investment: Saudi Arabia signed a peaceful nuclear cooperation framework with the U.S., aiming to build long-term energy security; Ghana is finalizing a $500m World Bank oil palm financing deal. Public Finance: Ghana’s mid-year review defended spending against underspending claims, detailing payments across wages, debt service, health, education, and infrastructure.

Aviation & Trade Boost (Malaysia): Sarawak Premier Abang Johari announced AirBorneo’s first international flight from Kuching to Singapore, pitching it as a new era for regional connectivity, tourism, and exports. Human-Centered Growth (Malaysia): Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim launched the Humane Economy Global Discourse, arguing Malaysia’s AI-and-industry push must serve dignity, wages, housing, and healthcare—promises he says will feed into the 2027 Budget. Rates Watch (South Africa): With June inflation at 5% and oil risks rising, economists expect the SARB to lift the repo rate by 25–50 bps. AI Industrial Push (Philippines): Marcos is betting on the US-backed “Pax Silica” AI hub in New Clark City to drive jobs and growth. Cost-of-Living Relief (UK): England plans a 20% cut to business rates for pubs, clubs and live music venues, alongside broader cost-of-living measures. Geopolitics & Energy Risk (Global): Oxford Economics warns Middle East escalation and Strait of Hormuz disruptions could hit sovereign risk for energy-importing economies like the Philippines. War’s Economic Spillover (Ukraine): Shipowners suspended Black Sea farm-export vessel arrivals amid intensified Russian attacks. Public Finance Debate (UK): A UK minister refused to rule out a “wealth tax,” with supporters pushing asset levies ahead of the Autumn Budget. Infrastructure & Safety (Tanzania): Lake Victoria’s new search-and-rescue boats aim to cut accidents and improve service delivery for island communities.

Trade & Tariffs: US trade chief Jamieson Greer faced Senate grilling as Democrats warned Trump’s tariff spree is already raising costs, while the administration insists price impacts haven’t hit families. Budget & Fiscal Policy: Ireland published its Summer Economic Statement 2026, setting a €8.5bn 2027 package (mostly spending) and flagging tight room ahead of Budget 2027. Health Policy: US House Oversight advanced a prescription-drug markup aimed at lowering prices and curbing PBM practices, while New Zealand’s Health NZ IT outages reignited pressure over health-sector cuts. Defense & Industrial Strategy: Germany plans a state investment fund to buy stakes in defense startups, betting the sector could add growth as Europe rebuilds capabilities. Energy Security & Shipping Risk: Yemen’s Houthis threatened to widen disruption at Bab el-Mandeb, a key Red Sea chokepoint for global trade. Digital Governance: India ordered removal of unauthorized e-rickshaw battery management apps from app stores after misuse concerns. Central Banking: Ghana’s Bank of Ghana held its policy rate at 14% amid geopolitical-driven inflation risks. Regional Development: Philippines President Marcos launched a BARMM “one-stop” convergence program, turning over P3.4bn in projects and assistance.

Moldova’s EU-leaning reset: Prime Minister Vasile Tofan was sworn in after a confidence vote, with an early agenda focused on economic growth, tax and salary reform, and improving the business environment while rebuilding public trust. Trade shock in North America: Canada canceled a planned ribbon-cutting for the Gordie Howe Bridge with the U.S., citing Trump tariff threats; meanwhile Mark Carney said he and Trump agreed to intensify USMCA talks as 50% duties loom. IMF on AI and development: The IMF says AI could lift Sub-Saharan Africa growth by ~4% over a decade, but only if countries fix electricity, internet, digital skills, and regulatory capacity. Policy and governance pressure: Nigeria’s VP Kashim Shettima warned the $1T goal needs strong corporate governance; in the U.S., the Supreme Court faces scrutiny over prediction markets ethics. Energy and security risks: A Black Sea LPG tanker was hit by drones in Romania’s EEZ; separately, US-Iran trade attacks and shipping risks keep energy supply chains under strain.

US-Canada Tariffs: Trump’s 50% duties on most Canadian goods are triggering fresh backlash from business groups, with analysts calling the move targeted but still a marked escalation that could hit integrated supply chains and jobs. Trade Diplomacy: Canada’s Mark Carney says he and Trump will intensify talks with the U.S. and Mexico as USMCA negotiations resume, while Jordan and the U.S. sign a reciprocal trade deal to cut customs duties and expand market access. Geopolitics & Energy Risk: The Iran war’s spillover is reshaping trade routes and energy prices, as Houthis threaten to widen disruption around Bab el-Mandeb, raising the stakes for global shipping and oil. Industrial Policy & Competitiveness: Malaysia vows to blunt unilateral US pressure on semiconductors and E&E via its National Semiconductor Strategy, while Henan expands trade-in subsidies to lift consumption. Digital & Growth: South Africa and the World Bank back a $1.5bn development policy loan focused on electricity, freight/logistics, and water reforms, and Caribbean agencies receive ICT gear to speed up digital trade documentation. Public Sector Integrity: Puerto Rico’s top permit officials step down amid corruption allegations, underscoring how governance risks can spill into economic confidence.

UK Economic Reset: Andy Burnham took office as prime minister and named John Healey as chancellor, signaling a push for a new economic model and cost-of-living focus while investors watch for tax and spending shifts. Trade War Shock: Trump announced 50% tariffs on most Canadian imports, targeting autos, alcohol, dairy and more, prompting Mark Carney to vow Canada will intensify talks. Aerospace & Industrial Policy: The British Business Bank and UK government are progressing a proposed £100m aerospace supply-chain fund with Airbus, GKN Aerospace and Rolls-Royce to help suppliers scale. AI Governance: Australia is tightening rules for AI use in government and workplaces, aiming for transparency and human accountability after past automated-decision failures. Water & Industry: Malaysia’s energy transition ministry will study an industrial water reclamation policy to boost efficiency for sectors like data centres and semiconductors. Regional Trade & Diplomacy: UAE non-oil trade hit AED 1.937tn in H1, while Syria and Kuwait agreed to deepen economic ties and business links. Energy Security: India’s NSA Ajit Doval met Saudi officials on protecting maritime corridors amid US-Iran tensions. Food & Protest Politics: Farmers in India were stopped at the Shambhu border while protesting the proposed India-US trade deal. Social Spending: Ukraine reported UAH 218.4bn allocated for social expenditures in H1, including pensions and disability support. Investment & Risk: Investors were urged not to panic ahead of potential tax rises under Burnham, with attention on long-term, government-backed schemes.